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THE INDIA TRADE: WHY THE NEXT LEG OF THE BULL MARKET IS JUST BEGINNING - 7 October 2025
Only 9.5% of India Invests - (source : SEBI forecast survey 2025)
In 2020, 3% of India Invests in stocks
Dear Investors,
Dear Prospects,
The arguments in favor of investing in Indian equities are piling up and they will, sooner or later, trigger a massive inflow of capital.
As stated in the Theory of Fields of Wealth (a concept created and developed by Mr. Pierre Jean Martin, founder of the SELENIA fund), money constantly seeks the places where it is best treated, and where it appreciates the most.
So, what are these compelling reasons? Here are a few recent ones:
October 7: The World Bank has revised India’s GDP growth forecast upward to 6.5% , citing “strong domestic demand and resilient exports.”
October 1: The India-EFTA Free Trade Agreement was signed, paving the way for a surge in foreign direct investment (FDI) into India.
October 1-6: The Reserve Bank of India relaxed its External Commercial Borrowing (ECB) framework, facilitating corporate access to offshore financing.
Q4 2025: An IPO boom is anticipated, with up to USD 8 billion expected to be raised.
And more to come…
All of this is unfolding amid a wave of economic optimism following last month’s broad-based reduction in the Goods and Services Tax (GST).
This stands in stark contrast to the prevailing economic gloom across the West, where taxes, regulation, and energy costs continue to rise, and where policies seem, quite inexplicably, to steer economies ever closer to a financial abyss.
India, of course, has its imperfections, notably a somewhat cautious equity market! …
…But that very restraint offers a distinct advantage: market valuations have not yet fully priced in the positive impact of these far-reaching policy decisions.
Moreover, only 9.5% of Indians currently invest in equities (up from 3% in 2020). At this pace, India could approach U.S. participation levels (around 55%) within a decade - a scenario made even more plausible now that the government allows 100% equity allocation within the NPS.
Taken together, these factors position the Indian financial markets for an unprecedented - and unequivocal - phase of expansion in the years ahead.
Sincerely,
Eric Martin - Selenia Global (Maurice/Dubaï), 10 October 2025
INDIAN MID-CAPS: GST 2.0 REFORM USHERS IN A NEW ERA OF GROWTH - 5 September 2025
Pour en savoir plus : site officiel
Dear Investors,
Dear Prospects,
The Indian economy is entering a pivotal phase with the landmark GST 2.0 reform (India’s VAT – see attachment), which will take effect on September 22nd, 2025.
According to Grok AI engine: “Analysts forecast this could trigger a new bull cycle in equities, with double-digit profit after tax (PAT) growth.”
As highlighted by the Economic Times of India: “GST 2.0 trigger throws up over 90 stock ideas as rate cuts may spark new market cycle” (see article).
Indeed, based on our own estimates, this new tax structure will significantly reduce the cost of numerous goods and services, stimulate domestic consumption, and accelerate growth in key sectors such as automotive, insurance, healthcare, education, consumer goods (both industrial and agricultural), and logistics – WITH A STRONG TAX CUT DOWN TO 5% IN MOST SECTORS!
In practical terms, this will lead to:
A substantial, immediate, and sustainable increase in consumption (with a Q4-2025 boom expected thanks to the announcement effect);
An additional boost of 0.6% to 1.6% of GDP as early as next quarter;
Earnings growth of +17% in Q1 FY26 for mid-cap Indian companies that have already demonstrated resilience by outperforming large caps;
Exceptional results for mid-caps exposed to domestic consumption, finance, and industry – the primary beneficiaries of this reform!
JUST IMAGINE THE MID-CAP RESULTS (Q3-2025) TO BE PUBLISHED BETWEEN EARLY AND MID-OCTOBER 2025…
JUST IMAGINE THE IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON MID-CAP INDICES BY YEAR-END…
…AND JUST IMAGINE THE IMPACT ON YOUR PORTFOLIOS!
Do you not agree that we are facing a historic window of opportunity to invest – or increase your allocations – in our Indian funds (MID CAP or AB INDIA)?
If, like us and our partners, you believe the answer is yes, then contact us without delay!
We remain fully available to discuss, or to provide a personalized simulation aligning your long-term objectives with India’s structural growth trajectory.
Sincerely,
Eric Martin - Selenia Global (Maurice/Dubaï), 5 September 2025
DON’T MISS THE INDIA MOMENT – THE NEXT DECADE STARTS TODAY - 19 August 2025
One should not wait for market rallies… but rather anticipate them.
After more than eight months of stagnation in the Indian equity market, investors who continue to wait before investing or re-investing may be missing a true “window of opportunity.”
The period 2024–2025 has been marked by a series of events with significant impact on global financial markets and their volatility: Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections; the announcement of sweeping U.S. tariff hikes; the IMF’s downward revision of global growth forecasts; political tensions between Pakistan and India; the Iran–Israel conflict; and more.
And yet, during this period, the NIFTY 500 INDEX HAS SHOWN LOWER VOLATILITY THAN ITS WESTERN PEERS (U.S. and Europe)[1] :
India (Nifty 500): volatility ranged between 12.4% and 22.8% in H1 2025 – among the lowest levels compared to other major markets;
United States: volatility ranged between 14.8% and 52.3% in H1 2025;
Europe: volatility ranged between 14.9% and 46.7% in H1 2025.
Has the Indian index, with its lower volatility, become something of a safe-haven investment in times of global economic, financial, and geopolitical uncertainty?
Yes – this may very well be the case. The Indian market has demonstrated two of its greatest strengths: (1) Resilience and (2) Robustness.
(1) A RESILIENT FINANCIAL MARKET:
Oil price shocks: Since the 2022 agreements (massive imports of discounted Russian oil, settled in rupee–ruble), the impact of Brent and WTI fluctuations on the Nifty 500 has been muted.
Geopolitical risk: Recent wars and geopolitical tensions (India–Pakistan and Israel–Iran) have had relatively limited effects on the Nifty 500.
Global economic headwinds: Since 2021, domestic investment inflows into Indian equities have consistently exceeded foreign capital inflows. This trend, which has strengthened since 2015[2], is unlikely to reverse, as India’s young and expanding workforce continues to accumulate wealth and reinvest into the stock market through the National Pension System (NPS) to benefit from tax incentives.
(2) A ROBUST FINANCIAL MARKET: India’s capital markets are increasingly deep and sophisticated – the National Stock Exchange now ranks as the 5th largest globally by market capitalization[3] – and supported by a flourishing domestic economy.
RECENT ENDORSEMENTS FROM LEADING ANALYSTS AND INSTITUTIONS :
S&P Global (14 August 2025)[4] upgraded India’s sovereign rating to BBB, citing fiscal discipline, strong fundamentals, improved public spending, and a proactive monetary stance.
Deloitte (“India economic outlook, August 2025”)[5] Highlights India’s structural resilience, with annual GDP growth of +6.5% (7.4% in the last quarter), driven by consumption and private investment. Forecasts growth between 6.4% and 6.7% for FY 2025–26, supported by monetary easing and prudent fiscal management.
PWM Headline (“Why India stands out from a shifting world order - July 2025)[6] emphasizes India’s strategic position amidst global tensions, its economic reforms, trade agreements (UK, EU), and its use of diplomatic agility as an investment lever.
Goldman Sachs (“Stronger for Longer: Investing in India’s Economic Ascent” - April 2024)[7] points to long-term macroeconomic stability, structural reforms, robust foreign capital inflows, mature capital markets, rapid digitalization, and immense growth potential.
Morgan Stanley (“What Could Keep India’s Bull Market Going?” – June 2024)[8] forecasts potential annual equity gains of +20% for five years, driven by renewed private investment, a dynamic services market, and an economy powered by technology and consumption.
Morgan Stanley (Times of India, August 2025)[9] confirms that India is on track to become the world’s largest consumer market, supported by the energy transition, growth in financial services, and a robust manufacturing base.
Economic Times (19 August 2025)[10] reports that BHP expects a sharp increase in demand for iron ore, coking coal, and potash, fueled by a boom in infrastructure and industrial construction. Iron ore demand alone could quadruple within 25 years.
VALUATION CONSIDERATIONS
The only caveat, one might say, lies in valuation: the Nifty 500’s P/E ratio (~24×) may appear elevated, but it has already corrected to below that of the S&P 500 (~30×).
Still, is it not reasonable for an index like the Nifty 500 – supported by a healthier economy and a more balanced market capitalization distribution – to trade at a premium, compared with an index where 5% of companies account for more than 50% of total market capitalization?
Eric Martin - Selenia Global (Maurice/Dubaï), 19 August 2025
[1] https://www.ey.com/en_gl/insights/ipo/trends
[2] decision of the Indian government, in 2015, to liberalize the allocation rules of the National Pension System to invest in the Indian stock market (to move closer to the American 401K model)
[4] https://www.reuters.com/world/india/sp-lifts-indias-rating-bbb-first-upgrade-since-2007-2025-08-14/
[5] https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/asia-pacific/india-economic-outlook.html
[6] https://www.pwmnet.com/content/e6396175-0cd4-4c45-b2ab-49a56dcf50e1
[7] https://am.gs.com/cms-assets/gsam-app/documents/insights/en/2024/fi-outlook_4q24.pdf
[8] https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/india-election-stock-outlook
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