Selenia Insights – 25 May 2026

Mr. Michael Hartnett (Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of America) describes the current market concentration around AI as “the biggest bubble since the railroad era of the 1880s” - with the sector’s weighting set to exceed 48% of US indices once the SpaceX and OpenAI IPOs are included. His Bull & Bear indicator has just reached 8.0, triggering a sell signal. (Bloomberg, 22 May 2026)

Against this backdrop of tech overconcentration, Indian mid-caps offer a documented structural decorrelation: in 2022, while Western markets fell 15 to 30%, the NIFTY Midcap 150 ended the year at 0%. Hartnett himself maintains a constructive view on emerging markets over the medium term, independent of the AI bubble - and identifies small and mid-caps as the best post-bubble trade play. (Investing.com, 22 May 2026)

Finally, while India has temporarily slipped to 6th place globally (a currency and statistical effect, not an economic slowdown) the IMF projects it as the 3rd largest economy as early as 2028, behind only the United States and China. (IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026)

Selenia Global (Mauritius/Dubai), 25 May 2026

Notes: This text is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Fund authorised by the FSC (Mauritius), CIS licence n° C113012028.

Global Energy Shock, Macroeconomic Fundamentals and Implications for Investors

Selenia Insights – April 29, 2026

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Whether or not the Strait of Hormuz reopens, Europe is facing a certain agricultural crisis linked to fertilizer shortages - whereas India has activated all its levers to protect its farmers and domestic economy. This institutional shield, which Europe lacks, once again protects Indian domestic consumption and therefore growth - confirming the structural resilience differential at the heart of the Selenia thesis.

 This thesis, which you will find in the attached document (“India resilience”), is supported in certain respects by major international financial institutions: Jefferies (March 2026) notes that Indian corporate earnings are growing +18% year-on-year - an eight-quarter high - and that geopolitical shocks are being treated as buying opportunities for India (link) ; the IMF (April 2026) maintains a forecast of 6.5% p.y. Indian growth in 2026 and 2027 despite the Hormuz crisis (cf. img.org, page 7) ; On fertilizers, the CEO of Coromandel International confirms: "No immediate fertiliser shortage risk for next crop cycle" (cf. businesstoday.in ; rapport DEA).

 Regarding the management of the fertilizer shortage risk in India, here is the analysis:

The blockade of Hormuz creates a double vulnerability for India: 7 million tonnes of urea imported annually from the Gulf are being blocked, and more than half of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) used as feedstock in India's fertilizer manufacturing plants also transited through this strait. In practice, when Hormuz closes, India's urea plants lack both finished product to import and gas to produce it.

 For LNG, the Shell Group replaced Qatari deliveries in under six weeks by sourcing from Oman, Australia, and Nigeria - shipping routes entirely outside Hormuz. The price paid doubled, rising from approximately USD 10 per gas unit to USD 24-25, but supply was restored.

On fertilizers, the Modi government's response was immediate and concrete. In early April 2026, the Cabinet approved an agricultural subsidy package of nearly USD 5 billion for the 2026 summer planting season, approximately USD 500 million more than in 2025 (an increase of 11–12%). This subsidy keeps the retail price of fertilizers to farmers strictly unchanged, despite the global surge in prices. In practice, a farmer in Punjab today buys their bag of DAP (diammonium phosphate, the most common phosphate fertilizer for rice, wheat, and corn) at exactly the same price as before the crisis. Government fertilizer reserves have reached record levels, well above the previous year.

Finally, Russia — the world's leading fertilizer exporter — represents the long-term structural buffer. Its shipments transit via the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea, entirely independent of Hormuz, and benefit from preferential bilateral agreements with India. A Russian-Indian joint venture urea plant with a capacity of 2 million tonnes per year is currently being accelerated in the Samara region.

Europe is facing the same crisis without any of these shock absorbers. Russia, its main supplier of nitrogen fertilizers, is sanctioned with customs tariffs that will reach prohibitive levels by 2028. The Gulf is blocked. The price of natural gas in Europe — a key input for local fertilizer production — has surged from EUR 32 to EUR 52 per megawatt-hour in just a few weeks, making domestic fertilizer production economically unviable. And unlike India, no institutional mechanism to freeze agricultural prices has been activated at the scale needed to protect European farmers from this inflation.

 Thank you for your attention to this analysis,

 Eric Martin for Selenia Global (Mauritius/Dubai), April 29, 2026

Global Energy Shock, Macroeconomic Fundamentals and Implications for Investors

Selenia Insights – March 16, 2026

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The geopolitical escalation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz represents one of the major energy risks to the global economy. This strategic maritime chokepoint handles nearly 20% of global oil trade, as well as a significant share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows.

In this context, many economies could face significant inflationary pressure driven by rising energy prices.

However, India appears structurally better positioned than most developed economies to absorb this energy shock.

This relative resilience rests on several key factors:

• a largely domestic electricity production (99% of consumption),

• limited macroeconomic exposure to LNG and LPG,

• its diplomatic positioning, which allows it to benefit from exemptions for the passage of oil and gas tankers (LPG) bound for India;

• significant strategic petroleum reserves,

• and an economy largely oriented towards services and domestic consumption.

In this context, despite potential short-term volatility, India’s macroeconomic outlook remains relatively solid in the current geopolitical environment. One clear indicator of this is the very limited increase in pump prices since the start of the war in India compared to other economies, which is already a telling sign…

Discover the full 16-slide analysis in the downloadable PDF: Selenia Analysis – Impact of the Strait of Hormuz Crisis on the Indian Economy.

Eric Martin for Selenia Global (Mauritius/Dubai), March 16, 2026

Dear Investors,

Dear Prospects,

The arguments in favor of investing in Indian equities are piling up and they will, sooner or later, trigger a massive inflow of capital.

As stated in the Theory of Fields of Wealth (a concept created and developed by Mr. Pierre Jean Martin, founder of the SELENIA fund), money constantly seeks the places where it is best treated, and where it appreciates the most.

So, what are these compelling reasons? Here are a few recent ones:

• October 7: The World Bank has revised India’s GDP growth forecast upward to 6.5% , citing “strong domestic demand and resilient exports.”

• October 1: The National Pension System (NPS) has been authorized to allocate up to 100% of its assets to Indian equities. 

• October 1: The India-EFTA Free Trade Agreement was signed, paving the way for a surge in foreign direct investment (FDI) into India.

• October 1-6: The Reserve Bank of India relaxed its External Commercial Borrowing (ECB) framework, facilitating corporate access to offshore financing.

• Q4 2025: An IPO boom is anticipated, with up to USD 8 billion expected to be raised.

And more to come…

All of this is unfolding amid a wave of economic optimism following last month’s broad-based reduction in the Goods and Services Tax (GST).

This stands in stark contrast to the prevailing economic gloom across the West, where taxes, regulation, and energy costs continue to rise, and where policies seem, quite inexplicably, to steer economies ever closer to a financial abyss.

India, of course, has its imperfections, notably a somewhat cautious equity market! …

…But that very restraint offers a distinct advantage: market valuations have not yet fully priced in the positive impact of these far-reaching policy decisions.

Moreover, only 9.5% of Indians currently invest in equities (up from 3% in 2020). At this pace, India could approach U.S. participation levels (around 55%) within a decade - a scenario made even more plausible now that the government allows 100% equity allocation within the NPS.

Taken together, these factors position the Indian financial markets for an unprecedented - and unequivocal - phase of expansion in the years ahead.

Sincerely,

Eric Martin - Selenia Global (Maurice/Dubaï), 10 October 2025

Dear Investors,

Dear Prospects,

The Indian economy is entering a pivotal phase with the landmark GST 2.0 reform (India’s VAT – see attachment), which will take effect on September 22nd, 2025.

According to Grok AI engine: “Analysts forecast this could trigger a new bull cycle in equities, with double-digit profit after tax (PAT) growth.”

As highlighted by the Economic Times of India: “GST 2.0 trigger throws up over 90 stock ideas as rate cuts may spark new market cycle” (see article).

Indeed, based on our own estimates, this new tax structure will significantly reduce the cost of numerous goods and services, stimulate domestic consumption, and accelerate growth in key sectors such as automotive, insurance, healthcare, education, consumer goods (both industrial and agricultural), and logistics – WITH A STRONG TAX CUT DOWN TO 5% IN MOST SECTORS!

In practical terms, this will lead to:

• A substantial, immediate, and sustainable increase in consumption (with a Q4-2025 boom expected thanks to the announcement effect);

• An additional boost of 0.6% to 1.6% of GDP as early as next quarter;

• Earnings growth of +17% in Q1 FY26 for mid-cap Indian companies that have already demonstrated resilience by outperforming large caps;

• Exceptional results for mid-caps exposed to domestic consumption, finance, and industry – the primary beneficiaries of this reform!

JUST IMAGINE THE MID-CAP RESULTS (Q3-2025) TO BE PUBLISHED BETWEEN EARLY AND MID-OCTOBER 2025…

JUST IMAGINE THE IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON MID-CAP INDICES BY YEAR-END…

…AND JUST IMAGINE THE IMPACT ON YOUR PORTFOLIOS!

Do you not agree that we are facing a historic window of opportunity to invest – or increase your allocations – in our Indian funds (MID CAP or AB INDIA)?

If, like us and our partners, you believe the answer is yes, then contact us without delay!

We remain fully available to discuss, or to provide a personalized simulation aligning your long-term objectives with India’s structural growth trajectory.

Sincerely,

Eric Martin - Selenia Global (Maurice/Dubaï), 5 September 2025